大越期货原油早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply surplus and global economic slowdown concerns are pushing US crude oil prices towards the lowest level since the post - COVID - 19 recovery. The simultaneous increase in production by the US and OPEC has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's plan to meet with Putin again, have alleviated the risk sentiment in the crude oil market, accelerating the decline in oil prices. The Indian attitude towards stopping the purchase of Russian oil is unclear. The domestic crude oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The SC2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump plans to meet with Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war; Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases from December; Saudi Aramco CEO warns of potential supply shortages if the industry doesn't increase exploration and investment [3]. - Basis: On October 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.51 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.11 per barrel. The basis was $28.63 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.211 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of October 7, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term price is weak, SC2511 trades in the 430 - 440 range, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel on Thursday, down 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. In the past year, it has fallen by 19%. The increase in production by OPEC and the US has led to a supply surplus. Lower oil prices benefit US consumers but pose challenges to the US oil industry [5]. - US oil producers reached a daily production of over 13.6 million barrels in July, and it is expected to remain at this level by the end of the year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: The Russia - Ukraine conflict threatens refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - Negative Factors: The situation in the Middle East has eased; there is a risk of US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The prices of various types of crude oil have changed. For example, the price of UK Brent crude oil decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decrease of 1.66% [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventory data from August to October show fluctuations in inventory levels. For example, API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: The net long positions of WTI crude oil funds have changed over time. As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: The net long positions of Brent crude oil funds have also changed. As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].