大越期货燃料油早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but suggests a short - term bearish outlook for fuel oil [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to have sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products. High - sulfur fuel oil refining profit recovery has curbed refinery raw material demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has faced downward pressure on upstream valuation due to sufficient inventory and weak demand. With international oil prices falling, and considering geopolitical and trade factors, fuel oil is under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Specifically, FU2601 is expected to operate bearishly in the 2620 - 2680 range, and LU2512 in the 3080 - 3130 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals show sufficient supply in Asia in November. The basis indicates that the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 1740000 barrels to 22359000 barrels in the week of October 15. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing. The expected short - term trend is bearish, with FU2601 in the 2620 - 2680 range and LU2512 in the 3080 - 3130 range [3]. - Futures price changes: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2714 to 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3216 to 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The FU basis increased from 24 to 26, an increase of 2 or 9.13%, and the LU basis decreased from 36 to - 6, a decrease of 41 or 115.90% [5]. - Spot price changes: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 367.61 to 369.75, an increase of 2.14 or 0.58%. The Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil price decreased from 435.50 to 430.60, a decrease of 4.90 or 1.13%. The Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 344.12 to 345.51, an increase of 1.39 or 0.40%. The Singapore diesel price decreased from 620.96 to 618.06, a decrease of 2.90 or 0.47% [6]. 3.2 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Russia has extended its fuel export restrictions [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the relationship between the US and Russia has eased after their talks [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil are summarized as neutral, mainly due to sufficient supply in Asia, high existing inventories, continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products, and the impact of refining profit recovery on refinery raw material demand [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the change in the basis of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 6 to October 15 shows fluctuations. In the week of October 15, the inventory was 22359000 barrels, an increase of 1740000 barrels [8].