大越期货沥青期货早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The shipments of sample enterprises decreased by 29.38% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.98% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment increased by 1.96% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is either decreasing or flat month - on - month and lower than the historical average [9]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Overall expectation: The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bullish, the inventory is neutral, the market is bearish, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3258 - 3300 [9][10][11]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The supply pressure remains high, and refineries have reduced production to relieve supply pressure [8][15]. - Demand side: The demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than the historical average [9][15]. - Cost side: The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term support, and the asphalt processing loss has decreased [9]. - Market expectation: Narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating between 3258 - 3300 [10]. - Influencing factors: Bullish: relatively high crude oil costs; Bearish: insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side Data - Planned production: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [8]. - Capacity utilization rate: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points [8]. - Shipments: The shipments of sample enterprises were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38% [8]. - Output: The output of sample enterprises was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98% [8]. - Maintenance volume: The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Data - Downstream开工 rates: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with some showing month - on - month decreases [9]. 3.2.3 Cost - side Data - Processing profit: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%; the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. 3.2.4 Inventory Data - Social inventory: 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% [11]. - Factory inventory: 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48% [11]. - Port diluted asphalt inventory: 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% [11]. 3.2.5 Market Data - Futures prices: The prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease [18]. - Basis: On October 16, the spot price in Shandong was 3420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 258 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Main positions: The main positions were net short, and short positions increased [11].