甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving factors are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal chemical industry are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Outer - market prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is high [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 700, and export is good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be alleviated to neutral [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent caustic soda export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' spot and relevant indicators changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2228 to 2305, and the import profit remained unchanged at 325 [2]. - Viewpoint: The trading logic focuses on the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has potential demand, but port reverse flow impacts inland valuation. Xingxing's operation situation and inventory accumulation also affect the market. Import variables such as Indian purchases from Iran and unplanned maintenance should be noted [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 785. The prices of various polyethylene products in different regions changed. For example, the North China LL price decreased from 6980 to 6880, and the import profit changed from 14 to - 84 [6]. - Viewpoint: Inventory is neutral overall. Attention should be paid to factors such as LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6450 to 6200, and other prices and indicators also changed. For example, the export profit increased from - 33 to - 16 [7]. - Viewpoint: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Valuation indicators are in a certain state. Future supply and demand are affected by factors such as exports and PDH device maintenance [7]. PVC - Price Data: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained stable at 2400 in some days, and other prices and indicators had minor changes. For example, the export profit decreased from 408 to 424 [7]. - Viewpoint: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity implementation, exports, coal prices, and terminal orders in Q4 [7].