建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251017

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand, with supply pressure remaining difficult to ease. The market's cost - side support is weak, and it is expected to operate under pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and position changes of plastic (L2601, L2605, L2609) and PP (PP2601, PP2605, PP2609) futures contracts are presented. For example, L2601 closed at 6,929 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.3%), and PP2601 closed at 6,618 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.42%) [5][6]. - Market Situation: Despite the slight increase in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and downstream buyers mostly waited and watched. The supply - demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continued to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises increased maintenance due to lower - than - expected peak - season demand, the expected maintenance losses from September to November will narrow, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. After the holiday, social inventories increased, and the demand in October had some resilience but with limited new orders. The downstream mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the inventory - removal pressure was high. The upward revision of the crude oil supply forecast may lead to accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and cost - side support is difficult to find [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On October 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 800,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,880 - 7,170 yuan/ton, 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,130 - 7,600 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6,200 - 6,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene weakened, and production enterprises sold at discounted prices with a poor trading atmosphere [7]. - PP Market: The PP market was mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,480 - 6,570 yuan/ton, 6,460 - 6,630 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not detailed in the text [9][12][14].