建信期货多晶硅日报-20251017

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market continues to fluctuate widely within the current range. Although the supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, policy-driven factors take precedence over fundamentals, and potential policy benefits boost market sentiment. The far-month contracts are already at a premium, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance levels while being cautious about market rumors [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to fluctuate strongly. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was 52,575 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.8%. The trading volume was 266,129 lots, and the open interest was 78,885 lots, a net decrease of 1,229 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The average spot price remained stable at 53,200 yuan/ton. The recent continuous rebound of the futures price is still at a discount to the average spot price. The basis convergence is mainly due to the recent meetings driving funds to continue to bet on policy improvements to support the stability of the spot price. The supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, with insufficient production cuts on the supply side and weaker-than-expected end-user demand. The overall inventory in the spot market is still increasing, but policy-driven factors take precedence over fundamentals [4] 2. Market News - On October 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 8,130 lots, an increase of 80 lots from the previous trading day [5] - On October 16, there was a rumor that a polysilicon storage platform had been established, but a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]