建信期货国债日报-20251017

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core View - In October, the bond market may face a dilemma of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, intensifying anti - inefficiency efforts, and market waiting for the official implementation of the public fund new regulations. Positives may include economic slowdown boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases. Currently, short - term monetary easing is unlikely. Overall, in October, the bond market may stabilize after risk clearing, but a rebound may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait patiently for better bond allocation opportunities, possibly in the second half of Q4 [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Condition: With little change in fundamentals and funding, the stock - bond seesaw continued. The decline of A - shares boosted long - term bonds, and most treasury bond futures closed higher [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds fluctuated narrowly. The medium - and long - term yields declined within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.754%, down 0.45bp [9] - Funding Market: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 236 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, short - term funding rates fluctuated narrowly, the 7 - day rate rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 2bp to 1.65% [10] 3.2 Industry News - Sino - US Trade: The US said whether to impose 100% tariffs on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices on technology transfer [13] - China's Financial Data: In September, M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap hit a new low this year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. China's foreign trade maintained growth, with the import and export value in Q3 increasing by 6% year - on - year and 8% in September [14] - Rare Earth and Other News: China's export control measures on rare earths are in line with international practices. The US may extend the tariff suspension period in exchange for China delaying rare earth export controls. US President Trump will visit Japan at the end of October and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [15] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: It includes information on treasury bond futures trading data, main contract inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and main contract trends [6][16][17] - Money Market: It shows data on inter - bank pledged repo weighted rates, SHIBOR term structure and trends [25][28][33] - Derivatives Market: It presents Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) [37][38]