建信期货生猪日报-20251017

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Industry: Pig 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. In the current low - price environment, attention should be paid to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase and drive the market. On the spot side, the supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. The spot price may still be mainly fluctuating weakly, and it has rebounded slightly driven by the secondary fattening demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 12,175 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,905 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 15,190 lots to 296,783 lots [6]. - Spot Market: On the 16th, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 11.16 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [6]. - Supply - side: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7]. - Demand - side: Currently, the cost of secondary fattening to produce meat is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the utilization rate of pens declines, which has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has declined slightly after the festival, but as the weather continues to cool, residents' consumption may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, but the overall increase may be limited. On October 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 163,300 heads, an increase of 1,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 14,000 heads [7]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - Breeding Profit: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head [16]. - 15kg Piglet Price: In the week of October 9th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head compared with the previous week [16]. - Price Difference between 150 - kg Fat Pigs and Standard Pigs: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [16]. - National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs: As of the week of October 9th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [16].