建信期货豆粕日报-20251017

Report Overview - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 1.1 Market Quotes - Contract Performance: The prices of soybean meal contracts 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined, with decreases of -0.24%, -0.07%, and -0.35% respectively. The trading volume of the 2601 contract was 662,721, and the open interest was 1,982,359, showing an increase of 6,785 [6]. - External Market: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1010 cents. Due to the recent Sino - US trade disputes, the CBOT soybean prices first dropped sharply on Friday night and then stabilized on Sunday [6]. 1.2 Impact of Sino - US Trade Disputes - Market Reaction: The impact of this Sino - US trade dispute on the market was significantly weaker than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market believes that the possibility of subsequent tariff increases is low, and the scope of influence is also reduced [6]. - Future Outlook: The progress of subsequent negotiations between the two sides will significantly affect the macro - economy and the prices of soybean products. Attention should be paid to the results before the APEC meeting at the end of October [6]. 1.3 Market Outlook - Trend Judgment: The previous bullish view has been changed to a volatile one. In the short - term, the market focuses on the high supply and high inventory of soybean meal. However, the reduction of soybean inventories at Chinese ports in the middle of the fourth quarter will support the market, and there is potential positive news about the US soybean yield. It is difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short and medium - term [6]. - Key Influencing Factors: The resumption of US report releases, the results of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Argentine export policy will affect the valuation of the 01 contract [6]. 2. Industry News 2.1 NOPA Report - Soybean Crushing: In September, NOPA member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. The daily processing volume reached 6.595 million bushels, the second - highest on record [7]. - Soybean Oil Inventory: As of September 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - Production: The US produced 4,700,448 short tons of soybean meal and 2.352435 billion pounds of soybean oil in September [8]. 2.2 IBGE Forecast - Brazilian Soybean: It is estimated that the total planting area of Brazilian soybeans this year will be 47.7 million hectares, a 0.1% increase from last month's forecast and a 3.6% increase from last year. The estimated output is 1.65866 billion tons, a 14.4% increase from last year, and the estimated yield per unit area is 3478 kg/ha, a 10.4% increase from last year [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][15]