建信期货原油日报-20251017

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The fundamentals of the crude oil market are bearish, and the Israel-Palestine situation is easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation may provide upward momentum for oil prices, but in the context of oversupply, rising oil prices will be dragged down by inventory build-up expectations. It is recommended to short on rebounds and focus on reverse arbitrage [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $58.15, closing at $58.3, with a high of $58.93, a low of $57.78, a daily increase of 0.05%, and a trading volume of 21.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.33, closing at $62.47, with a high of $63.04, a low of $61.79, a daily increase of 0.13%, and a trading volume of 33.12 million lots. SC's opening price was 446.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 443.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 447.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 439.2 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.14%, and a trading volume of 5.47 million lots [6] - Supply Situation: OPEC+ and countries like Brazil and Guyana have continuously increased production. The crude oil market will remain oversupplied in Q4 2025, with an expected inventory build-up of 2.55 million barrels per day, 320,000 barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. The inventory build-up rate in 2026 is expected to increase from 1.87 million barrels per day to 2.09 million barrels per day [6] - Operation Suggestions: Short on rebounds and focus on reverse arbitrage [7] Group 5: Industry News - OPEC Secretary-General: By 2050, oil will still account for 30% of the global energy structure [8] - Saudi Aramco CEO: Without increased investment, the world may face an oil shortage in the future [8] - US Treasury Secretary: Hopes Japan will stop importing Russian energy [8] - Sources: Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports [8] - Trump: Modi promised that India will stop buying Russian oil, but it will take time [8] - Bank of America: If OPEC+ increases production while trade tensions escalate, Brent crude prices may fall below $50 per barrel [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][18]