《能源化工》日报-20251017

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The price may continue to fluctuate under the game of supply and demand. Focus on the stability of overseas device operation, the customs - clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival performance. Pay attention to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - limiting expectations [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The inventory pressure after the holiday is still significant. The supply pressure is prominent in the medium - and long - term, and the demand lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Caustic Soda - There is demand support in the medium - and long - term, but it is weak in the short term. It was previously recommended to be bearish, and now the short positions can be temporarily closed as the market stabilizes [8]. PVC - The short - term disk may continue to be under pressure. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased and exports have recovered, the demand in the peak season is weak. Pay attention to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. PX - The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. It will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and mainly conduct reverse spreads on the monthly spread [9]. PTA - The short - term drive is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see TA, pay attention to the support around 4500, and conduct rolling reverse spreads on TA1 - 5 [9]. Ethylene Glycol - It is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure is weak in the far - month. It is recommended to short EG01 on rallies, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 [9]. Short Fibers - The absolute price is still under pressure in the short term, but it is relatively strong compared to raw materials due to low inventory. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and widen the processing margin at a low level [9]. Bottle Chips - It is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. PR follows the cost end, and the processing margin improves in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - The overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [10]. Styrene - The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. EB11 should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2605 prices rose slightly on October 16. The basis and regional spreads changed. The spot prices in some regions decreased [1]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, the port inventory decreased by 3.36%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.61% [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86%, the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 5.33%. Some downstream operating rates changed, with the MTO device operating rate increasing by 4.63% [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - Price and Spread: L2601, PP2601 and other futures prices rose slightly. The basis and price differences between contracts changed [5]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, and the trade - related inventory of PP also increased [5]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% [5]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Price and Spread: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of PVC increased [8]. - Supply: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased, but the external - purchase calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased [8]. - Demand: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some decreasing [8]. - Inventory: The PVC upstream factory inventory and social inventory increased [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and the cash flows also changed [9]. - PX - related Prices and Spreads: The PX price and related spreads changed, with the PX basis decreasing significantly [9]. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: The PTA price and basis changed, and the processing margin decreased [9]. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: The MEG price and basis changed, and the inventory increased [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil and pure benzene changed, and the spreads also changed [10]. - Styrene - related Prices and Spreads: The styrene price and related spreads changed, and the cash flow improved [10]. - Inventory: The pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [10]. - Industry Operating Rates: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries changed, with some decreasing [10].