《有色》日报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Supply remains tight with low processing fees and uncertain future supply from Myanmar. Demand is weak, especially in traditional sectors, despite some support from AI and photovoltaic industries. Short - term macro - economic factors may cause price fluctuations. Consider buying on dips due to strong supply - side factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, prices may remain high and volatile [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cost support is evident, but raw material supply is tight. Supply is restricted by raw material availability and policy uncertainty, while demand is gradually recovering. Inventory is starting to decline, but the absolute level is still high. ADC12 prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [3]. Alumina - The market is in an oversupply situation. Spot prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the futures main contract may fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include cost - profit changes and policies in resource - rich countries [4]. Aluminum - Macro - economic factors are favorable, providing support for aluminum prices. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance, with supply shortages in some areas and a mixed demand situation. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [4]. Nickel - Macro - economic uncertainties exist. The industry is facing pressure, with nickel - iron prices under stress and shrinking profits. Inventory is increasing, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Macro - economic risks are increasing, and raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. However, downstream demand during the peak season has not met expectations, and inventory is putting pressure on prices. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market is strong, driven by news and strong downstream demand. Production and demand are both increasing, and the industry is in a de - stocking phase. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract price center around 74000 - 76000 yuan/ton [10]. Copper - High copper prices are suppressing demand. Macro - economic factors such as the approaching Sino - US tariff deadline and US employment data may affect prices. Copper supply shortages are a long - term concern, which will support copper prices. The main contract is expected to find support between 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.18% to 281200 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.05% to - 130.01 dollars/ton [2]. - Internal - External Ratios and Import Profits/Losses: Import losses decreased by 8.72% to - 13986.17 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.92 [2]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5.71% to - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamental Data: August tin ore imports decreased by 0.11%, and September SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% [2]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5879 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.32% to 7786 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spreads: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamental Data: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy production rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54% [3]. - Inventory: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 2.84% to 5.48 tons [3]. Alumina - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.14% to 20950 yuan/ton, and alumina prices in some regions decreased [4]. - Ratios and Profits/Losses: Import losses decreased by 107.2 yuan/ton to - 2253 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.59 [4]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: September alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 tons [4]. - Inventory: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.39% to 62.70 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.73% [4]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.12% to 122150 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased by 2.60% to - 206 dollars/ton [5]. - Electrolytic Nickel Costs: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP decreased by 0.62% to 116448 yuan/ton [5]. - New Energy Material Prices: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.25% to 28550 yuan/ton [5]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.75% to 29575 tons [5]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.78% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 8.82% to 315 yuan/ton [7]. - Raw Material Prices: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.48% to 938 yuan/nickel point [7]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 tons, and stainless steel imports increased by 60.48% to 11.72 tons [7]. - Inventory: 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.56% to 50.18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% to 8.32 tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 792.86% to - 1940 yuan/ton [10]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2510 - 2511 decreased by 1060 yuan/ton to - 1120 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: September lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [10]. - Inventory: September lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 0.38% to 64539 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 32930 tons [10]. Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.07% to 85175 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [12][14]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [12][14]. - Fundamental Data: September electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 tons [12][14]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased by 6.73% to 17.75 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 15.42% to 10.97 tons [12][14].