建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251017

Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market - On October 16, the main contracts of coke (J2601) and coking coal (JM2601) futures showed a strengthening trend after fluctuations, recovering most of the losses since September 29. The closing price of J2601 was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 21,965 lots and a position of 42,547 lots (a decrease of 314 lots), and a capital inflow of 0.16 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,185.5 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 981,288 lots and a position of 623,751 lots (an increase of 21,901 lots), and a capital inflow of 5.61 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On October 16, the spot market prices of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were all 1,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions such as Tangshan, Lvliang, and Linfen also remained stable [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On October 16, the daily KDJ indicators of both the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed golden crosses. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts have been narrowing for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 News - On October 16, steel mills in Guangdong such as Zhongnan Iron and Steel, Yangchun New Iron and Steel, and Yufeng Iron and Steel issued price - support notices. Sichuan De Sheng and Dazhou Iron and Steel also sent letters to agents to resist the low - price dumping of speculators. - After China's counter - measures in restricting the export of medium and heavy rare earth - related raw materials, equipment, and technology and charging special port fees for US - related ships, the US authorities threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, but on October 13, they lowered the tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. - BHP has reached an important agreement with Sinomine Resource Group and some Chinese steel manufacturers and traders. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, 30% of the amount in BHP's iron ore spot transactions with China will be settled in RMB [10]. 3.2 Fundamentals - Coke: As of last week, the coke production of independent coking plants has been slightly declining for 4 consecutive weeks after reaching a new high since late May. The coke production of steel mills has increased significantly after reaching a new low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has rebounded slightly after falling to a new low since mid - July, while steel mill inventory has started to decline after reaching a new high since late May. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. The profit per ton of coke has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increases for coke was implemented on October 1 [11]. - Coking Coal: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports slightly narrowed to - 7.6%. As of last week, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in mines has dropped significantly in the past 16 weeks, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has significantly declined from a new high since the end of January, and the inventory of steel mills has declined for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June. Port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. With the significant inventory reduction of coking plants after restocking, the prices of the main coking coal spot market have continued to be strong [11]. 3.3 Comprehensive Outlook - Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility, but the fundamentals of the coke and coking coal spot markets have supported the futures market. The overall trend of coke and coking coal futures is oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations, changes in the supply of the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the differences in the re - inflation rhythm of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [12]. 4. Industry News - According to the latest data from the State Tax Administration, in the first three quarters, the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry continued to advance, with sales revenue increasing by 4.7% year - on - year, accounting for 29.8% of the national corporate sales revenue. The high - end transformation of the manufacturing industry advanced rapidly, with the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 9% year - on - year, accounting for 46.9% of the manufacturing industry. In particular, the sales revenue of industries such as computer and communication equipment and industrial mother machines increased by 13.5% and 11.8% respectively year - on - year [13]. - Multiple companies released announcements, including power generation, coal production, and performance forecasts. For example, in the third quarter of 2025, Huaneng International's on - grid power generation decreased by 3.67% year - on - year; Shaanxi Energy's coal production in the third quarter increased by 17.83% year - on - year; Chongqing Iron and Steel expects to reduce losses by 1.12 - 1.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 compared with the same period last year [14]. - Shanxi's provincial - owned enterprises have built 137 intelligent coal mines, with advanced coal production capacity accounting for 95%. Enterprises such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Jinneng Holding are piloting the construction of "zero - carbon" mines [14]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Three - Year Action Plan for Cultivating and Improving the National Advanced Manufacturing Cluster of Southern Jiangsu Special Steel Materials (2025 - 2027)". By 2027, the output value of the cluster's leading industries is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan, the output of special steel and high - end alloys will reach 35 million tons, the R & D investment intensity will be close to 4%, and a series of goals in innovation and enterprise cultivation will be achieved [15]. - On October 14, the US Trade Representative Office (USTR) officially implemented a revised port fee policy, significantly reducing the port fees for Chinese - flagged and Chinese - operated vessels, which alleviated the potential impact on the US coal export industry [15]. 5. Data Overview - The report also presents multiple charts related to the coke and coking coal markets, including spot price indices, production, inventory, and basis, with data sources from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][21][22][29][30][31]