建信期货铁矿石日评-20251017

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On October 16, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 773.5 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. With the confirmation of the negotiation rumor between Sinomine Group and BHP and the escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may oscillate weakly but is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. Attention should be paid to the repair of downstream demand [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On October 16, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated weakly, opening lower and then oscillating, closing at 773.5 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The trading volume was 398,551 lots, and the open interest was 535,578 lots, an increase of 27,213 lots. The net inflow of funds was 293 million yuan [5][7] - The main iron ore outer - market quotes and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained flat compared with the previous trading day [9] 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline after a death - cross on the previous trading day; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 has been expanding for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.3 Future Outlook - BHP will change 30% of the amount in iron ore spot transactions with China to be settled in RMB from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will set an observation period for long - term contracts in 2026, still denominated in US dollars for now [10] - In terms of supply, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September, affected by end - of - quarter impulse. Shipments are expected to decline in October, and the recent significant increase in arrivals is expected to gradually fall back [11] - In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output is still above 240,000 tons but has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the growth space of subsequent output is limited and may oscillate and decline around 240,000 tons in the short term [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - holiday restocking efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually fall back after the holiday and return to the state of restocking on demand [11] 3.2 Industry News - On October 16, the central bank carried out 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 376 billion yuan [12] - The Ministry of Commerce will carry out work in aspects such as releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation, including implementing existing foreign trade policies, strengthening service guarantees for foreign trade enterprises, and making policy reserves [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures showing data such as the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, etc. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22]