Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade friction is in the stage of mutual exploration. Market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the friction is more about posturing before negotiations. The stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend and potentially larger short - term fluctuations [2] - The 10 - year Treasury bond has different performances. When the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate rises above 1.8%, the allocation value recovers, and it may face resistance at 1.75% and 1.7%. Short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - Safe - haven demand supports the strong performance of precious metals. Gold remains strong, and silver rises in tandem with gold [2] - The shipping index (European line) EC main contract shows downward movement, with short - term fluctuations [2] - The steel market shows signs of recovery in apparent demand, and inventory starts seasonal destocking, while profit margins are converging [2] - The supply - side disturbances in the iron ore market are weakening, and the market is weakening from a shock [2] - The coking coal market has a rebound in coal prices and increasing downstream replenishment demand, while the coke market has the first round of price increases before the festival and is temporarily stable [2] - The copper price is oscillating at a high level, and the alumina price is oscillating downward due to loose cost support [2] - The aluminum market has a narrow - range oscillation, and the inventory is destocking [2] - The crude oil price is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and inventory accumulation [2] - The urea market has limited improvement in supply - demand balance due to falling daily production, and the market lacks strong drivers [2] - The PX and PTA markets have weak supply - demand expectations and limited oil price support, with low - level oscillations [2] - The short - fiber market has low inventory pressure and short - term support [2] - The bottle - chip market has a loose supply - demand pattern, but the processing margin has improved in the short term [2] - The ethanol market has port inventory accumulation and a weak far - month supply - demand structure, so it is weak in the short term [2] - The caustic soda and PVC markets have stable or rising prices and stronger basis quotes [2] - The benzene and styrene markets have weak supply - demand expectations and price pressure [2] - The synthetic rubber market has stable cost support but a loose supply - demand situation, with a short - term expected rebound [2] - The LLDPE and PP markets have weak supply - demand and price oscillations [2] - The agricultural product markets such as soybeans, corn, and cotton have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - The special commodity markets such as glass and rubber have different price trends and operational suggestions [2] - The new energy markets such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have upward price trends and different operational suggestions [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase. Conservative investors can wait for the fluctuations to converge and then enter the market at low levels, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2] Treasury Bond - The short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3. It is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2] Precious Metals - Gold remains strong due to safe - haven demand. Long positions can be held with stop - loss and take - profit measures, or out - of - the - money call options can be used instead. Silver follows gold's upward trend, and long positions above $53 should be held [2] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract has short - term fluctuating movements. It is recommended to buy below 1600, stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices for the month - spread [2] Steel - The steel market has recovered apparent demand and seasonal destocking. The profit margin is converging. Single - side trading should be on the sidelines, and the month - spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high prices [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is weakening from a shock. Single - side trading should be on the sidelines, with a reference range of 750 - 800. Arbitrage can be done by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2] Coking Coal and Coke - For coking coal, go long at low levels in the range of 1120 - 1250 and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coke, go long at low levels in the range of 1620 - 1770 and conduct the same arbitrage [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper is oscillating at a high level, with the main contract focusing on the 84000 - 85000 support. Alumina is oscillating downward, with a main operating range of 2750 - 2950. Aluminum is oscillating in a narrow range, with the main contract referring to 20700 - 21300 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is under pressure due to trade tensions and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to go short on the single - side. Urea lacks strong drivers, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. PX and PTA have weak supply - demand expectations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, soybeans are under pressure, and cotton has increasing supply pressure [2] Special Commodities - Glass has a strengthening market sentiment and a rebound. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions. Rubber should be monitored for raw material price increases during the peak - production period [2] New Energy - Polysilicon is rising in an oscillating manner, and long positions should be held. Lithium carbonate is strongly operating, with the main contract price referring to the 74000 - 76000 range [2]
广发期货日评-20251017
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-17 07:06