广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term drivers are limited, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate. If raw material supply is smooth during the peak production season in the main producing areas, there is further downward space; if not, the rubber price is expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Logs - There is no obvious driver in the current log supply - demand situation. The near - month 11 - contract is under pressure, while the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The market may experience wide - range oscillations in the short term, with some support at the bottom due to the seasonal peak season [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to continue to weaken. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For glass, it is suggested to close short positions for the time being. Mid - term attention should be paid to the spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [5]. Industrial Silicon - Overall, the increase in industrial silicon supply puts pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to trade in a low - level oscillation, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, buying on dips can be considered [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable. It is mainly in high - level oscillation. Supply pressure may lead to price decline, but strong spot prices provide support. Attention should be paid to policy implementation, production control, and demand - side order increases [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: On October 16, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. The overall basis of whole latex increased by 6.98%. Other varieties also showed price changes [2]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton with a - 166.67% change, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton with a 100% change [2]. - Fundamental Data: In August, Thai production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesian production decreased by 4.30%, Indian production increased by 11.11%, and Chinese production increased by 12.20. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased, and domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, while tire exports decreased by 5.46%. The total import of natural rubber in August increased by 9.68% [2]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.68%. The出库率 of dry rubber in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased, while the入库 and出库 rates of general - trade dry rubber increased [2]. Logs - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 16, the prices of log futures contracts such as 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all increased slightly. The prices of spot logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged [4]. - Supply: In September, port shipments increased by 6.00%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 4.55%. This week, the expected number of New Zealand log ships to arrive increased by 6, and the arrival volume increased by 20.05 million cubic meters [4]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China reached 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - Demand: As of October 10, the daily average log出库 volume was 573,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 83,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On October 17, the prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased. The basis of the 05 - contract decreased by 57.45% [5]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 increased slightly, and the 05 - contract basis decreased by 31.58% [5]. - Supply: The soda ash well - working rate increased by 3.37%, the weekly soda ash production increased by 3.37%, the float - glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory: The glass end - user inventory increased by 5.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.74%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [5]. - Real Estate Data: The new well - working area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, and the completion area decreased by 0.03% [5]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: On October 15, the spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained unchanged, while the basis decreased [6]. - Monthly Spreads: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton with a 400% increase, and other spreads also changed [6]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, the national开工率 increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polycrystalline silicon production decreased by 1.29% [6]. - Inventory Changes: The factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.64%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 2.16% [6]. Polysilicon - Spot Prices and Basis: On October 15, the average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly unchanged, while the N - type material basis decreased by 31.70% [7]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads: The main - contract price increased by 1.75%. The spreads between different contracts also changed [7]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 6.89%, and polycrystalline silicon production decreased by 0.32%. Monthly polycrystalline silicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports decreased by 14.02%, and exports increased by 40.12% [7]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.19%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.39%, and polysilicon warehouse - receipts increased by 1.26% [7].