碳酸锂市场周报：供需双增库存去化，锂价或将有所支撑-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy of trading in old cars for new ones has a huge driving effect on the car market, and it is expected that the total number of cars traded in for new ones will exceed 12 million by the end of the policy this year, directly driving new car sales close to 1.7 trillion yuan[7]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with the demand growth rate faster than the supply, and the industrial inventory shows an obvious decline[7]. - The lithium carbonate price may be supported, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and control risks[7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a price increase of +4.07% and an amplitude of 6.93%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 75,700 yuan/ton[7]. - Market Outlook: The macro - policy boosts the car market. Overseas miners continue to hold prices firm, and smelters have a good production willingness. There are new production lines in domestic lithium spodumene and salt lake areas, and lithium salt plants have good profit conditions and high operating rates. The demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries is strong, driving inventory depletion[7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks[7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 75,700 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,960 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 400 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 200 yuan/ton[13]. - Spot Price: As of October 17, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,350 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,160 yuan/ton compared to last week[19]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of October 16, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 852 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1249, with a weekly increase of 0%[23]. - Lithium Mica: As of October 17, 2025, the average price of lithiophilite was 7,550 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 400 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,723 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 78 yuan/ton[28]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, an increase of 8,001.6 tons from July, a growth rate of 57.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. The monthly export volume was 368.905 tons, an increase of 2.56 tons from July, a growth rate of 0.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 56.97%. As of September 2025, the monthly output was 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from August, a growth rate of 2.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.59%. The operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32%[34]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Demand Side: - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: As of October 17, 2025, the average price was 79,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 11,500 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, a growth rate of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25%[37]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 33,400 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 900 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output was 246,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from August, a growth rate of 2.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 35.93%. The operating rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%[41]. - Ternary Materials: As of September 2025, the monthly output was 63,140 tons, a decrease of 2,720 tons from August, a decline rate of 4.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.56%. The operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials continued to strengthen[46]. - Lithium Manganate: As of September 2025, the monthly output was 9,920 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from August, a decline rate of 3.97%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 32,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week[51]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price was 326,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 28,500 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output was 15,080 tons, an increase of 100 tons from August, a growth rate of 0.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 103.23%[54]. - Application Side: - New Energy Vehicles: As of September 2025, the penetration rate was 46.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.52%. The monthly output was 1,617,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 16.25%; the sales volume was 1,604,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 14.98%. The cumulative export volume was 1.758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.44%[56][61]. 3.6 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying was - 0.01, indicating a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option[64].