铝类市场周报：需求提振预期向好，铝类或将有所支撑-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and improving demand, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of gradually decreasing supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract of alumina at low prices [8]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage of decreasing supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory, and it is recommended to lightly trade the main contract of cast aluminum in a volatile manner [10]. - Considering that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Shanghai Aluminum: The supply side has high smelting profits and high operating rates, and the supply may increase slightly. The demand side is boosted by the domestic macro - economy and the traditional peak season, with improved downstream operations and obvious inventory reduction. It is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract at low prices [7]. - Alumina: The raw material port inventory is decreasing, and the supply may decrease due to profit losses. The demand is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract at low prices [8]. - Cast Aluminum: The supply is restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand is stable but affected by high raw material prices. The inventory is relatively high. It is recommended to lightly trade the main contract in a volatile manner [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,885 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from October 10; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,796 US dollars/ton, up 0.49% from October 10. The alumina futures price was 2,779 yuan/ton, down 1.94% from October 10; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,390 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from October 10 [13][17]. - Position Changes: As of October 17, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 495,719 lots, down 3.11% from October 10, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 7,345 lots from October 10 [20]. - Price Spread Changes: As of October 17, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 905 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan/ton from October 10; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 63,480 yuan/ton, down 1,450 yuan/ton from October 10 [25]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of alumina, cast aluminum, and domestic Shanghai Aluminum all weakened. For example, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,890 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from October 10 [28]. 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 495,325 tons, down 2.61% from October 9; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 122,028 tons, down 2.2% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 572,000 tons, down 3.7% from October 9 [38]. - Raw Materials: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory decreased. The scrap aluminum quotation was firm, with increased imports and decreased exports [41][48]. - Production and Trade: In August 2025, the alumina production increased year - on - year, with decreased imports and exports month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum import increased year - on - year; the electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year in the cumulative value; the total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, with increased imports and decreased exports year - on - year; the production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year; the total production of aluminum alloy increased, with decreased imports and increased exports [51][54][62]. - Downstream Markets: The real estate market declined slightly, the infrastructure investment was favorable, and the automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [71][74]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78].