Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price remained mostly in a stalemate and fluctuated according to actual demand and sentiment later [5]. - Recently, some domestic urea plants have shut down, and no shutdown plants have resumed production, leading to a significant decrease in production. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises' plants will plan to shut down, and 6 - 7 shutdown plants may resume production. Considering possible short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high [5]. - Continuous rainfall in the north has postponed agricultural demand, reducing the flow of urea. More compound fertilizer enterprises' plants have reduced their loads and shut down. In the short term, enterprises will continue to reduce inventory, and the plant operating rate may remain at a low level [5]. - As the urea price has fallen below the previous low of the year, downstream enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, maintaining the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the weak market trading atmosphere, urea transportation has slowed down, and the inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate this week. High inventory exerts great pressure on the urea market [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [5]. - Market Outlook: Production is likely to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is postponed, and compound fertilizer enterprises' operating rates are low. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm at low prices has increased, but high inventory pressures the market [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [10]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 17, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 70 [12]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Warehouse Receipt Trend: As of October 17, there were 6,294 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 723 from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of October 16, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1,560 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of October 16, the FOB China price of urea was 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - Basis Trend: As of October 16, the urea basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.32 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of October 16, China's urea production was 132.05 million tons, down 6.97 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [41]. - Inventory: As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 44.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.1 million tons, a growth rate of 7.47%. As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 million tons, an increase of 17.15 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 11.88% [44]. - Export Situation: In August 2025, China's urea export volume was 79.67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.46% and a year - on - year increase of 3,024.31%. From January to August 2025, China's total urea exports were 144.11 million tons, an increase of 119.66 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 489.41% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points week - on - week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from last week [52].
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251017
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 09:40