瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trade situation has a negative impact on the market sentiment. A - share major indices and stock index futures have declined, while treasury bond futures have strengthened. Commodity indices are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. - The Fed's dovish tone, tariff tensions, and the US government shutdown have weakened the US dollar. The euro remains strong, and the yen is mainly boosted by the weakening of the US dollar [6][10]. - The rise in international gold prices has driven up the core CPI, and the Chinese government's subsidy funds are expected to boost consumption. The trade situation is uncertain due to Trump's actions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stock: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.22%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures fell 2.35%. A - share major indices fell collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were weaker. The market was affected by the trade situation, and the allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - Bond: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.06%, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.31%. Treasury bond futures strengthened, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - Commodity: The Wind commodity index rose 6.93%, and the China Securities commodity futures price index rose 0.49%. Except for gold, other commodities performed poorly, and the allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.89%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract rose 0.86%. The US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Domestic News: The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes stabilizing market expectations; the Chinese government imposes special port fees on US ships; the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [14]. - International News: The US lowers EU auto tariffs to 15%; Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year; the IMF warns that global public debt will reach a new high by 2029 and raises the world economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, M1 growth rate was 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 growth rate was 8.4% year - on - year [17]. - US: The October NAHB housing market index was 37 [17]. - EU: The August industrial output monthly rate in the eurozone was - 1.2% [17]. - UK: The August three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.3%, and the August manufacturing output monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - Germany: The September CPI monthly rate was 0.2% [17]. - France: The September CPI monthly rate was - 1% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - October 20: China's one - year loan prime rate, September social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, September industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, and Germany's September PPI monthly rate [81]. - October 22: Japan's September commodity export year - on - year, UK's September CPI monthly rate, and September retail price index monthly rate [81]. - October 23: US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the eurozone's October consumer confidence index preliminary value [81]. - October 24: Japan's September core CPI year - on - year, UK's September seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, France's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and US September unadjusted CPI and core CPI year - on - year [81].