工业硅多晶硅市场周报：枯水期来临抬成本，行情震荡难有上行-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.94%, while polysilicon prices rose by 6.89%. The industrial silicon futures market declined due to weak downstream demand despite cost - driven production cuts in the dry season. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity boosted polysilicon prices [4]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, production costs are rising in Sichuan and Yunnan during the transition to the dry season, leading to production cuts. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia are on standby, and some Xinjiang factories are actively producing. On the demand side, the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a negative overall demand for industrial silicon, and high inventory still pressures price [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is large with inventory accumulation, and demand is weak in the domestic photovoltaic industry. Although emerging markets show increasing demand, high inventory may pressure prices downward if supply continues to rise [4]. - Operationally, the main contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss range of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon will fluctuate in the short - term, ranging from 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures declined, and polysilicon futures rose. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity was the key factor for the rise in polysilicon prices [4]. - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, supply - side production cuts are occurring in some regions due to cost increases, while some are ready to start production. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and high inventory remains a problem. For polysilicon, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and emerging markets buffer the decline [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded in the range of 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon should be traded in the range of 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss of 46000 - 55000 [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: This week, the price of industrial silicon futures and spot both declined, and the basis decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 745 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate increased. As of October 9, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 8.58 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.09% [4][12][19]. - Polysilicon: This week, the price of polysilicon futures and spot was flat, and the basis weakened. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 52.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 200 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 175 yuan/g [16]. 3. Industry Situation - Industrial Silicon Cost: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon remained stable, but the electricity price increased near the dry season, leading to rising costs. From October 10 to 16, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest and northwest was stable at 0.30 yuan/kWh, but it is expected to rise [21][24]. - Industrial Silicon Warehouse Receipts: As of October 17, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50291 lots, a decrease of 483 lots from the previous week [28]. - Organic Silicon: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the weekly output was 4.56 tons, a decrease of 1.73%, and the operating rate was 69.67%, a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price, cost, and profit increased. The spot price of organic silicon DMC was 11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week, the profit was - 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton, and the cost was 11740 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [35][39]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy remained flat, and the inventory continued to decline. As of October 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the inventory was 7.44 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [41][46]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained flat. As of October 16, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.48 yuan/piece, and the battery cell price was 0.31 yuan/watt, both unchanged from last week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be slightly flat [48][50]. - Polysilicon Industry: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory increased. As of October 16, 2025, the profit was 10980 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40780 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 27.5 tons [59].