红枣市场周报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current jujube market is at a critical juncture between the old and new seasons, with prices in the sales areas showing small fluctuations. The jujubes in the main production areas have not been harvested on a large scale yet, and it is expected to start after the Frost's Descent. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes. - The inventory of the 36 sample points continued to decline. As the new season is approaching, some merchants are actively selling their inventory to raise funds for the new season's acquisition. With the cooling weather, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. - It is expected that the jujube market will fluctuate within a certain range in the future. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term operation of the Zhengzhou Jujube 2601 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future trading reminders: Spot price and consumer end. - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.47%. - Market outlook: The jujube market is in the transition period. The inventory decreased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see for the short - term operation of the Zhengzhou Jujube 2601 contract [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of the Zhengzhou Jujube 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.47% [13]. - Futures positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 6441 lots [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 0 [19]. - Futures spreads: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's Jujube 2601 contract and the 2605 contract was - 10 yuan/ton [22]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was - 840 yuan/ton [25]. - Spot prices: As of October 17, 2025, the unified purchase prices of jujubes in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.80 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively; the wholesale prices of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei Cangzhou and Henan were 4.75 yuan/jin; the spot prices of special - grade grey jujubes in Hebei Cangzhou and Henan were 10.58 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [28][32][36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9009 tons, a decrease of 158 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 94.58% [40]. - Yield: In the 2024/25 production season, the jujube yield increased to 606.9 million tons [43]. - Demand side: - Exports: In August 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2364893 kg, with an export value of 39713257 yuan, an average export price of 16792.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of jujubes was 21264731 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.76% [47]. - BOCE trading: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of transactions [52]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week was provided, but no specific data was given [53]. - Futures - stock correlation: A chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni was presented, but no specific analysis was given [55].