Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.38%. After the U.S. government shutdown, the market is pricing in the expectation of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates. With the increase in lead production, prices are under pressure [5]. - In the short - term, the increase in primary lead production is relatively limited. Although the profit of secondary lead has recovered and the production is expected to increase in October, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory increase indicates a slowdown in demand. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. - The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai lead main contract 2511 is expected to rise first and then fall, with a volatile range of 17,000 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,800 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2511 fell 0.38%. After the U.S. government shutdown, the market is trading on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the increase in production has pressured prices [5]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, the processing fee of lead concentrate is currently stable. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the production of primary lead has limited short - term growth. The supply of waste batteries is tight, but the profit of secondary lead has recovered, and the production is expected to increase in October. With the expected increase in imported lead arrivals, the supply of secondary lead and overall lead may increase next week. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and the demand in the traditional lead - acid battery industry has not fully shown the seasonal peak effect. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields is good, and overall demand is slowly recovering. The overall inventory increase indicates a slowdown in demand. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern and may fall after a short - term rise [5]. - Operation Suggestion: The Shanghai lead main contract 2511 is expected to rise first and then fall, with a volatile range of 17,000 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,800 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased, and the ratio increased. As of October 16, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $1,970/ton, and the active - contract lead futures closing price was 17,100 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.68 [7][11]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic and foreign premium and discount of lead futures weakened. As of October 16, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 200 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $44.99/ton [13][15]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventory increased, domestic inventory decreased, warehouse receipt quantity increased, and the overall lead inventory increased. As of October 16, 2025, the total lead inventory was 3.38 tons (down 0.2 tons), the LME lead total inventory was 252,000 tons (up 15,000 tons), and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt quantity was 32,007 tons (up 1,939 tons) [30][34]. 3.3 Industrial Chain - Supply - Primary Lead: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased slightly, and production increased. As of October 9, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 83.56% (up 1.46% week - on - week), and the weekly production was 37,300 tons (up 20 tons week - on - week) [19][21]. - Supply - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate and production of secondary lead enterprises remained flat, and the recycling of scrap batteries increased. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 17,000 tons (up 0 tons week - on - week), and the average capacity utilization rate was 44.85% (up 0% week - on - week) [25][28]. - Supply - Trade: In August 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 43.62% month - on - month and increased by 408.31% year - on - year. Refined lead imports were 3,417 tons. Lead alloy imports were 12,784 tons. Lead concentrate imports were about 122,300 tons, up 3.6% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year. The total lead ingot imports were 13,450 tons, up 106.70% month - on - month and down 41.98% year - on - year [36][38]. - Demand - Processing Fee: The domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with a slight positive impact on production. As of October 10, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrate was 380 yuan/ton, and the average import processing fee (Pb60) was - $90/kiloton [41][43]. - Demand - Automobile: In September 2025, automobile sales increased. The overall automobile sales were 3.226 million, up 12.9% month - on - month and 14.9% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, up 24.6% year - on - year. The lithium - replacing - lead process is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - Demand - Recycling and Price: The recycling price of scrap batteries increased, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased. As of October 15, 2025, the average price of scrap lead (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan/group. As of October 16, 2025, the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19,630 yuan/ton [50][52].
沪铅市场周报：超级央行周将来临，沪铅价格迎来波动-20251017
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 10:00