棉花（纱）市场周报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. The price of the main contract of cotton yarn futures 2601 increased by about 0.49% [5][12][23]. - In the domestic market, the estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 727,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.1 yuan/kg, and the cost is still generally supported. The operating rate of textile enterprises is still low, and the peak season continues to show weak performance. It is expected that the replenishment enthusiasm of textile enterprises will be low in the later period. In the new year, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton will bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08% [5]. - Market Outlook: In the domestic market, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2020 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 45,420 lots, an increase of 2771 lots from the previous week [12]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: In the week ending September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The current international cotton spot price is 74.85 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.2 cents/lb from the previous week [16]. - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.49%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 82,062 lots, and those in cotton yarn futures were - 447 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 2653 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were 0 lots [23][29][35]. - Spot Market: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,679 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,440 yuan/ton [41][51]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of October 16, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,851 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan/ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 786 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week [56][59]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. The industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was stable with a slight decrease. In August 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6% [62][68]. - Demand Side: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 days. In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [71][76][80]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week, but no specific data is given [81]. - Stock Market: There is a graph of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa (600359), but no specific analysis is provided [84].