硅铁市场周报：成本高位利润亏损，库存中性供应回落-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, Trump restarted the trade war against China, imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Relevant measures were introduced to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries like steel. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and enterprises should pay attention to the transition from output control to carbon - emission control. Overseas, short - term funds flowed to US Treasury bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threat. The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers maintained normal production to fulfill previous orders. The inventory was at a neutral level, and the short - term cost was supported by the stable price of semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were in the red, at - 445 yuan/ton and - 390 yuan/ton respectively. Technically, the weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that ferrosilicon will oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro and Overseas: Trump's tariff threat led to a decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Measures were introduced for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry. The domestic steel demand will decline in the future. Overseas, funds flowed to safe - havens due to the tariff threat, and the IMF raised the world economic growth forecast [7]. - Supply and Demand: Manufacturers maintained normal production, with a neutral inventory level. The short - term cost was supported by semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were negative [7]. - Technical Analysis: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: With high - level production and a downward trend in subsequent crude steel output, the alloy is likely to remain in the red. Ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon futures contract持仓量 was 412,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 78, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,611, a decrease of 3,693. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9][12][16]. - Spot Market: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon basis was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 points [21]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Industry: This week (October 16), the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The daily average output was 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62%. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,572.5 tons, a decrease of 0.92%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 112,800 tons. The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 69,080 tons, an increase of 4.62% [27][31]. - Upstream: As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.005 yuan/kWh. As of October 16, the semi - coke price remained unchanged. The ferrosilicon spot production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%, and in Ningxia was 5,522 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 0.11%. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 445 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.48%, and in Ningxia was - 392 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.51% [35][38]. - Downstream: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. From January to August 2025, China's ferrosilicon export volume was 254,200 tons, a decrease of 25,800 tons compared to the same period last year, a decline of 9.21% [44].