贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - Copper: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - Aluminum: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - Zinc: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - Tin: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - Silicon Industry Chain: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Movement: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - Influencing Factors: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - Price Data: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - Market Outlook: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - Price Data: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - Market Outlook: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - Price Data: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - Market Outlook: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Data: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - Market Outlook: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - Price Data: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - Market Outlook: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Data: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - Market Outlook: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - Price Data: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - Market Outlook: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].