铜周报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals include the suspension of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine due to an accident, exacerbating the shortage of copper mines, with negative processing fees (TC) and raw - material - constrained smelting capacity; the opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and a weaker US dollar, boosting copper prices with loose liquidity expectations; Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing market panic and suppressing risk appetite; and the decline in spot premiums, with downstream buyers being cautious due to high prices and weaker - than - expected post - holiday restocking [4]. - The view is that Shanghai copper will fluctuate at a high level, with both supply and demand being weak but having strong support. The shortage at the mine end and macro - level positives support the price, while trade risks and demand limit the upside. Short - term fluctuations will intensify [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Copper Futures盘面Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 84,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.77%, a position of 215,573 lots (down 542 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 121,050 lots [6]. - The latest price of the Shanghai copper index - weighted is 84,341 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, a position of 546,240 lots (down 18,430 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 255,805 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 74,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.85%, a position of 4,498 lots (down 311 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 8,239 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 10,624 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%, a position of 239,014 lots (down 38,282 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 19,917 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 498.35 dollars, with a weekly decline of 3.04%, a position of 135,104 lots (down 8,882 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 41,836 lots [6]. b. Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 84,775 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,905 yuan and a decline rate of 2.2% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 84,835 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,840 yuan and a decline rate of 2.12% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 84,910 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,780 yuan and a decline rate of 2.05% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 84,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,830 yuan and a decline rate of 2.11% [11]. - The Shanghai Non - ferrous premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 175% [11]. - The Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 45 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 200% [11]. - The Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1000% [11]. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium is 115 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 130% [11]. - The LME copper (spot/3 - month) premium is - 11.16 dollars/ton, up 13.74 dollars week - on - week, with a decline rate of 55.18% [11]. - The LME copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 127.75 dollars/ton, up 33.58 dollars week - on - week, with a growth rate of 35.66% [11]. c. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The copper import profit and loss is - 1,122.08 yuan/ton, up 44.79 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 3.84% [12]. - The copper concentrate TC is - 40.7 dollars/ton, with no change week - on - week [12]. - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0548, down 0.0566 week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.38% [12]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 2,995.96 yuan/ton, down 503.08 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 14.38% [12]. d. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 42,849 tons, up 12,885 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 43% [17]. - The total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,518 tons, up 7,425 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 104.68% [17]. - The Shanghai copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.5% [17]. - The LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 129,900 tons, down 1,150 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 0.88% [17]. - The LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 7,550 tons, down 875 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 10.39% [20]. - The LME copper inventory is 137,450 tons, down 2,025 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.45% [20]. - The COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 153,604 tons, up 1,167 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.77% [20]. - The COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 191,048 tons, up 5,326 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.87% [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory is 344,652 tons, up 6,493 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.92% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 50.9 million tons, up 2.9 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 6.04% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.04% [20]. e. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the cumulative production was 9.891 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative production was 16.598 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. f. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 65.23%, up 2.21 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.85 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 25.37%, up 0.56 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.53 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper plates and strips was 66.24%, up 1.52 percentage points month - on - month and down 6.95 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 50.9%, up 1.04 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.52 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 59.44%, down 3.11 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.58 percentage points year - on - year [25]. g. Copper Element Import (Monthly) - In September 2025, the import of copper concentrates was 2.586873 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 22.663614 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of anode copper was 61,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 18%, and the cumulative import was 528,637 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import was 2,206,092 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In September 2025, the import of copper products was 485,105.381 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative import was 4,018,617.9 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29].