镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20251017

Core View - Bullish factors: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore has increased slightly, and policy disturbances need to be vigilant. The social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.18% week-on-week, providing support on the demand side [3]. - Bearish factors: LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 tons to 246,756 tons, and SHFE nickel warrants rose by 1,531 tons. The weak fundamentals suppress price rebounds, making it difficult for prices to rise [3]. - Trading advice: It is recommended to conduct range trading on the Shanghai Nickel 2511 contract between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [3]. Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest value of the main Shanghai Nickel contract is 121,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 140 yuan (-0.12%); the main LME Nickel 3M contract is at 15,230 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15 US dollars (-0.54%) [4]. - The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel decreased by 81,856 lots (-54.94%) to 67,146 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8,472 lots (-11.3%) to 66,228 lots. The SHFE nickel warrants increased by 1,246 tons (4.94%) to 26,474 tons [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest value of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 40 yuan (0%); the main stainless - steel contract No.1 decreased by 165 yuan (-1.29%) to 12,615 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading volume of stainless - steel futures decreased by 84,119 lots (-40.06%) to 125,870 lots, and the open interest increased by 24,829 lots (14.07%) to 201,245 lots. The stainless - steel warrants decreased by 3,023 tons (-3.50%) to 83,231 tons [4]. Spot Prices - The prices of various types of nickel, such as Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel, all showed slight declines, with a range of -0.08% to -0.12% [4]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 43,694 tons, an increase of 2,866 tons; LME nickel inventory is 250,344 tons, an increase of 3,588 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 952,600 tons, a decrease of 47 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,236 tons, an increase of 584 tons [6]. Charts and Data Sources - The report includes various charts showing the trends of nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, supply, and inventory, with data sources such as Wind, SMM, and Flush [7][9][13]