贵金属期货周报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the restart of the trade war, the economic recession restricts the consumer demand for gold and silver jewelry; the demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization; when the US restarts interest rate cuts, the medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals; a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts has been tracked [2][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US government plans to lay off more than 4,000 people, and the military may face unpaid leave due to the government shutdown. There are various international events such as border conflicts between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potential supply of "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, and the situation in the Middle East. Domestically, there are issues like government cabinet reshuffles and political events. Economically, the Fed has different stances on interest rate cuts, and the government "shutdown" continues with the Senate's repeated rejections of the temporary appropriation bill. The gold market is considered unsaturated with long - term macro - support factors remaining [8] Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: The latest long - position management fund holding is 122,450 contracts, and the short - position is 35,978 contracts. The SPDR gold ETF holds 862 tons, and iShares holds 402 tons. The Shanghai gold warehouse receipt is 3 tons, and the external - market inventory is 617 ounces. There are also changes in positions over different time periods [9] Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: The latest long - position management fund holding is 44,277 contracts, and the short - position is 27,801 contracts. The SLV silver ETF holds 13,802 tons. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons, and the external - market inventory is 8,398 tons. There are also changes in positions over different time periods [14] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - There are data on the import gold and silver hedging profit margins over a period from 2024/7/15 to 2025/9/29 [21] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Trends Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - There are data on the non - commercial net long positions and total positions of the ICE dollar index futures and options over a period from 2025 - 02 - 25 to 2025 - 09 - 23 [23] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - There are data on the non - commercial net long positions of CBOT 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as the total positions of US Treasury bond futures over different time periods [26][27] US Inflation Expectation - There are data on the US inflation expectations (break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year) from 2025 - 08 - 19 to 2025 - 10 - 16 [30] US Real Interest Rate - There are data on the US Treasury real yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year on a monthly basis from 2005 - 11 to 2025 - 05 [32] US Interest Rate Term Structure - There are data on US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) [35] US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spreads - There are data on the yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from 2025 - 08 - 19 to 2025 - 10 - 16 [38]