建信期货农产品周度报告-20251017

1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, specifically covering sub - sectors such as pigs, corn, soybean meal, eggs, and sugar [1] 2. Core Views Pigs - Supply side: Planned pig出栏量 in sample enterprises may continue to increase significantly in October, with large supply pressure. Long - term, pig出栏量 may maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. - Demand side: Secondary fattening has some replenishment demand, and terminal consumption may increase with cooler weather, but overall incremental demand is limited. - Overall: Spot prices may be volatile and weak, with a slight rebound due to secondary fattening demand. Futures contracts 2511 and 2601 may be weak due to spot weakness and secondary fattening出栏 expectations [56] Corn - Supply side: New crops are expected to increase in yield. With new corn harvest in October, supply increases, and costs decrease. Substitute advantages weaken, and future imports may remain low. - Demand side: Feed demand is good due to growing pig存栏, but inventory - building willingness is low. Deep - processing enterprises have turned profitable, with increased开工 rates and slightly higher inventories. - Overall: Spot prices may be volatile and weak, and futures contracts may oscillate around planting and collection costs [96][97] Soybean Meal - External market: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of information, and the external market may be in low - level oscillation. - Domestic market: High inventory is a reality, but there are potential positive factors such as reduced US soybean imports and potential yield adjustments. It is difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short - to - medium term [101][102] Eggs - Spot: After a sharp decline, prices rebounded slightly, but the rebound height and strength are limited. - Futures: After a sharp decline, they are in low - level oscillation, and overall, they are treated as a rebound with a short - bias. The fundamental inflection point may appear in early next year [136] Sugar - International market: Brazilian production data is slightly higher than expected, and with factors like falling oil prices and real depreciation, sugar prices are prone to fall. - Domestic market: New beet sugar is on the market, imports are expected to be high, and downstream demand is weak. Futures and spot prices are both weak [183][184] 3. Summary by Directory Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot: After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, demand declined, prices were weak in the first half of the week, and then rebounded due to factors such as consumption recovery and secondary fattening. The national average pig出栏 price was 11.02 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.20%, and a year - on - year decrease of 38.74%. - Futures: The main contract LH2601 of live hog futures fell, closing at 11905 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14%, with a basis of - 905 yuan/ton [7][8] 2. Fundamental Overview - Long - term supply: The price of二元 sows may be slightly adjusted. National能繁母猪存栏 shows different trends in different data sources, and theoretical pig出栏量 is estimated accordingly [15][17] - Medium - term supply: The price of 15kg piglets decreased. Sample enterprise小猪存栏 increased, and theoretical pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly in the medium term [31][32] - Short - term supply: Sample enterprise大猪存栏 increased. The proportion of pigs over 140 kg increased, and the secondary fattening sales ratio increased slightly in early October [33][35] - Current supply: In September, the actual出栏 completion rate was 96.5%, and the planned出栏量 in October may increase by 5.14%. The average出栏 weight decreased slightly. The proportion of small - weight pigs increased slightly, and the proportion of large - weight pigs decreased [40][41] - Import supply: In August, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the total import was 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [48] - Demand: In early October, secondary fattening had sporadic entries, and the utilization rate of fattening pens decreased. The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 32.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.07 percentage points [50][52] Corn 1. Market Review - Spot: Corn prices showed a seasonal decline. In the northeast, new corn was concentrated for listing; in the north, prices were weak; in the selling areas, prices oscillated and declined. - Futures: The main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures rose 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [60] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of October 10, the northern port inventory was 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 220,000 tons, and the southern port inventory was 387,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 tons [63] - Domestic substitutes: Wheat prices were oscillating and strengthening. The price difference between corn and wheat was 260 yuan/ton [65] - Import substitute grains: From January to August 2025, China's total grain imports decreased by 19.5% year - on - year. Imports of various grains such as corn, wheat, and barley showed different trends [69][70] - Feed demand: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises was 24.44 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% [80][86] - Deep - processing demand: The corn starch enterprise开机率 increased. The national corn processing volume was 581,700 tons, and the starch production was 293,500 tons. The processing profit of starch enterprises improved, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased [89][90] - Supply - demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn production is expected to increase slightly, consumption is basically flat, and imports are reduced by 100 million tons to 6 million tons [94][95] Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot: Coastal soybean meal prices showed mixed changes, with prices ranging from 2920 to 3020 yuan/ton. - Futures: The external market was in low - level oscillation due to the government shutdown. The domestic market was relatively weak compared to the external market, and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short - to - medium term [100][102] 2. Core Points - Soybean planting: The USDA September report adjusted new - season US soybean planting and production data. The US soybean harvest is in progress, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [103][105] - US soybean exports: As of September 18, new - season US soybean exports were at a historically low level, and subsequent exports depend on Sino - US agreements [112] - Domestic soybean imports and crushing: As of October 16, the crushing profit was negative. The开机率 and crushing volume are expected to remain high and then decrease in the fourth quarter. September soybean imports increased, and the port inventory will be seasonally reduced in the fourth quarter [117][118] - Soybean meal transactions and inventory: As of October 10, the domestic main oil mill soybean meal inventory decreased by 11.2% week - on - week. Terminal demand is relatively good, and overall demand is positive [125] - Basis and inter - month spread: As of October 16, the basis of the 01 contract increased slightly, and the 11 - 1 spread was - 23, with a change of 6 yuan. The 11 - 1 spread may oscillate weakly in the future [129] - Domestic registered warrants: As of October 16, the domestic soybean meal registered warrants were 43,122 lots, at a relatively high level in the same period [134] Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot: After a sharp decline, prices rebounded slightly, but the rebound is limited. - Futures: After a sharp decline, they are in low - level oscillation, and are treated as a rebound with a short - bias. The fundamental inflection point may appear in early next year [136] 2. Data Summary - Inventory and replenishment: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In September, the egg - chick hatch volume decreased, and the medium - term inventory may decline slightly [138] - Cost, income, and breeding profit: As of October 16, egg prices, feed costs, and egg - chick prices were at different levels, and the breeding profit was at a historically low level [155] - Culled hens: The culling volume increased recently, the culling age was stable at 499 days, and the culled hen price was at a low level in the same period [163] - Demand, inventory, and pig prices: As of October 16, egg sales were at a low level, inventory was high, and pig prices were at a low level in the same period [171] Sugar 1. Market Review - International market: The raw sugar index fell and then stabilized above 15 cents. Supply pressure and other factors made sugar prices prone to fall. - Domestic market: The Zhengzhou sugar index fell below 5400. New beet sugar was on the market, imports were expected to be high, and downstream demand was weak [183][184] 2. Data Analysis - Spot: Sugar spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong decreased. The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts increased slightly. - Futures: The 1 - 5 spread changed little, and the number of warrants decreased. - Brazilian production: In the second half of September, Brazilian sugar production was slightly higher than expected. As of October 1, the cumulative production in the 25/26 season showed different trends. - Export and inventory: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the inventory in different ports changed. The inter - period spread between London and New York sugar futures decreased. - Import profit: The import processing profit of raw sugar increased significantly. The non - quota and quota import profits of Brazilian raw sugar increased [187][203]