白糖日报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Sugar - Industry Situation: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September 2025 increased by 10.76% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, but the sugar production ratio dropped to 51.17%, easing some of the production increase pressure. In the domestic market, spot sugar prices continued to decline, with Guangxi sugar prices down 10 - 20 yuan/ton to 5,710 - 5,810 yuan/ton, and Yunnan down 10 yuan/ton to 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton. The import pressure remains, with the import volume in August reaching 825,000 tons, a record high for the same period. The new sugar - crushing season is delayed, and the de - stocking of old sugar is crucial. The market is awaiting import data and new - season production estimates [3]. - Futures Prices: On October 17, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,412 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.53%. Other contracts also showed different price changes [4]. - Price Spreads and Basis: The price spreads between different sugar futures contracts (e.g., SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., Nanning - SR01, Kunming - SR01) had various daily and weekly changes [4][12]. - Import Prices and Profits: The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, both within and outside the quota, had daily and weekly changes. The profit margins for Brazilian sugar, both within and outside the quota, also showed seasonal patterns [15][16]. 2. Cotton - Industry Situation: Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton is gradually entering the centralized acquisition stage, with the acquisition price slightly rising recently, and the production increase expectation slightly revised. However, the downstream peak season is weakening, market confidence is insufficient, and the new cotton supply pressure will gradually emerge. Under the high - yield pattern, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. The US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, 2025 [17]. - Futures Prices: On October 17, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [18]. - Price Spreads and Basis: The price spreads between different cotton futures contracts (e.g., cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., cotton basis) had different daily and weekly changes [19]. 3. Apples - Industry Situation: In the northwestern and Shandong apple - producing areas, late - maturing Fuji apples are generally in the coloring stage after bag - removal, and a small amount of red apples are on the market. Continuous rainy weather has slowed down the coloring in the western regions, and some bag - removal work in Shandong has been delayed. The supply of red apples is postponed compared to last year. There is a situation of high - quality apples at high prices and low - quality apples at low prices, but the risk of "bad money driving out good" should be guarded against [22]. - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 17, 2025, AP01 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.35% and a weekly decrease of 1.36%. Spot prices of different apple varieties in different regions also showed different changes [23]. - Price Spreads and Basis: The price spreads between different apple futures contracts (e.g., AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., apple main contract basis) had various daily and weekly changes [24]. 4. Red Dates - Industry Situation: The new - season red dates are about to be harvested. Some inland merchants have gone to the producing areas to order orchards, but the contract volume is still small. The current weather in the producing areas is good. With the high inventory of old dates, red dates may still face downward pressure [30]. - Futures Price Spreads: The price spreads between different red date futures contracts (e.g., red date futures 01 - 05, red date futures 05 - 09) showed different trends [31].