黑色系周报：钢材-20251017

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel Products [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This period saw a decrease in production and inventory and an increase in apparent demand for rebar; for hot-rolled coils, production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products rebounded month-on-month. Pay attention to opportunities for the narrowing of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [5]. - The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated [5]. - The hot-rolled coil 2601 contract fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In August, the month-on-month decline in new real estate starts narrowed [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel products, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 59,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 659,000 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.5695 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 636,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1.647 million tons. The rebar output was 2.0116 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 224,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 4.291 million tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2184 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 145,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.655 million tons [7]. - The EAF start-up rate was 68.85%, a month-on-month increase of 1.79% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.8226 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.846 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.0971 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.4105 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.859 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.1397 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1919 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 629,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 493,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.7541 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3996 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 355,600 tons [7].