有色金属周报-20251017

1. Report Information - Report Title: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - Demand: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - Spot: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - Demand: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - Spot: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - Alumina: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - Export: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - Processing: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - Nickel Ore: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - Nickel Iron: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - Nickel Sulfate: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - Stainless Steel: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - Demand: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - Spot: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].