策略周报:关注重磅会议信号,风格切换或持续-20251019
HWABAO SECURITIES·2025-10-19 08:46

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to experience moderate fluctuations, with the direction of bond yields dependent on the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" meeting policy signals, potential monetary policy easing (such as interest rate cuts), and the outcomes of China-US trade negotiations [2][12][10] - In the stock market, attention is drawn to signals from significant meetings, suggesting a potential continuation of style switching. The report anticipates that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" meeting may provide favorable signals, but due to substantial growth in the growth sector this year, the probability of style switching in the fourth quarter is increasing [3][12][10] - The report recommends a cautious approach to technology growth sectors post-meeting, suggesting a reduction in positions or a shift towards broader indices and low-volatility dividend stocks for a more stable investment strategy [3][12][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market has seen a slight decline in valuation, with a decrease in turnover rate indicating a reduction in market activity [18][19] - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a year-to-date return of 12.84%, outperforming the benchmark by 5.12%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.9396, indicating strong performance relative to risk [22][24] - The global macro multi-asset model has recorded a year-to-date return of 11.93%, exceeding the benchmark by 4.21%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.5879, reflecting favorable investment conditions [22][24]