LPG早报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG's main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news disturbances. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped sharply. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was at 4345 (-39), and South China was at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. The external market prices tumbled; the FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to propylene decreased. Inventory pressure was high, and short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand, and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis turned negative after a sharp drop, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - On 2025/10/17 compared with the previous day, the daily changes were as follows: South China LPG was -40, East China LPG was -24, Shandong LPG was -80, propane CFR South China was -5, propane CIF Japan was -13, CP forecast contract price was -5, Shandong ether - after carbon four was -40, Shandong alkylated oil was -30, and the main basis was -21. On Friday, civil gas prices dropped, with East China at 4345 (-24), Shandong at 4200 (-80), and South China at 4460 (-40). Ether - after carbon four was at 4420 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -20 (-32), and the November - December spread was 137 (+7). FEI and CP dropped to 469 (-5) and 447 (-5) dollars/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250), East China at 4345 (-39), and South China at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. External prices dropped significantly; FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price differences changed: PG - CP reached 132 (+27), PG - FEI reached 112 (+14), FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. CP propane and butane arrival discounts in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, US Gulf - Japan was 108 (-18), Middle East - Far East was 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open at -71 (-12). PDH to propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Despite large spot supply pressure and a sharp drop in the PG basis turning negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]