农产品早报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn, but may rebound in the long - term if farmers resist selling at low prices. Starch prices are likely to decline in the short - term with raw material price drops and inventory accumulation, but may be supported by increased downstream consumption in the long - term. Sugar prices face pressure both internationally and domestically. Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, with limited downside if no major macro - risks occur. Egg prices are expected to be weak in the short - term but may be supported by accelerated chicken culling. Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues. Pig prices may have short - term rebounds but face medium - term supply pressure [1][2][3][4][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From October 13 - 17, corn prices in different regions remained stable, with the basis dropping by 6 and import profit increasing by 1. Starch basis increased by 2 [1]. - Analysis: New - season corn is on the market, and short - term prices are weak due to supply. Long - term prices depend on the game between farmers and traders. Starch price adjustment is limited by high production costs, and short - term prices are expected to decline with inventory accumulation, while long - term prices depend on downstream consumption [1][2]. Sugar - Price Data: From October 13 - 17, sugar spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, the basis dropped by 4, and the number of warrants decreased by 20 [3]. - Analysis: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazilian production has uncertainties. Domestic sugar prices follow the international market, with import sugar arrivals and lower processing sugar quotes putting pressure on the market [3]. Cotton - Price Data: From October 13 - 17, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 15 [14]. - Analysis: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. Eggs - Price Data: From October 13 - 17, egg prices in major production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.11 in some regions, and the basis increased by 61 [8]. - Analysis: Egg prices dropped during the holiday, and are expected to be weak in the short - term due to high supply and seasonal demand decline. Accelerated chicken culling may support prices [8]. Apples - Price Data: From October 13 - 17, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500, and the 1 - month basis decreased by 115 [10][11]. - Analysis: New - season apples in the western region are about to be harvested, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. The national production is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues, and the average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty [11]. Pigs - Price Data: From October 13 - 17, pig prices in major production areas increased slightly, with the largest increase of 0.10 in some regions, and the basis increased by 335 [11]. - Analysis: Pig prices may have short - term rebounds due to low prices, but face medium - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [11].