广发期货《有色》日报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macro factors include tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spreads. Fundamentals show tight copper ore supply, potential smelter production cuts, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. Mid - long term, supply - demand contradictions support price increases, but short - term price spikes may limit demand. The main contract's support is at 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak with supply pressure and low demand. Its price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract in the 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton range. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton range, supported by a warm macro - environment and healthy fundamentals [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is range - bound. Cost support is strong, but supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. Demand is moderately recovering. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton range [5]. Zinc - Supply is becoming more abundant from the zinc ore to zinc ingot end. Demand is lackluster. Macro factors support prices, but the upside is limited. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, while demand is weak. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by macro factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. Macro uncertainties exist, and the industry has high production and inventory. Prices are expected to oscillate in the 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak. Overseas risks are high, domestic policies are favorable, and demand is sluggish. Prices are expected to oscillate in the 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton range [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Supply - demand gaps are expected to widen in the peak season. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 84,775 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The import profit and loss is - 686 yuan/ton, up 435.77 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 68.07 million tons, up 3.11% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import profit and loss is - 2,531 yuan/ton, down 278.6 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 62.70 million tons, down 3.39% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spreads: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.48 million tons, down 2.84% week - on - week [5]. - Fundamentals: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - Price and Spreads: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21,850 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The import profit and loss is - 4,530 yuan/ton, down 70.80 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The galvanizing开工率 is 58.05%, up 11.22% week - on - week [8]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, down 3.89% [10]. - Fundamentals: September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory is 5,691.0 tons, down 3.20% [10]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,350 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The futures import profit and loss is - 874 yuan/ton, up 451 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: Chinese refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory is 34,418 tons, up 3.93% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spreads: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory is 50.18 million tons, down 0.56% week - on - week [14]. - Fundamentals: Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spreads: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,350 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread is - 400 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamentals: September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [15].