芳烃橡胶早报-20251020

Group 1: PTA - The price of PTA spot decreased from 4440 on October 13, 2025, to 4340 on October 17, 2025, with a change of -15. The average daily trading basis was 2601(-85). Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 3.6 million - ton PTA plant. Near - term, some PTA plants increased their loads, and the start - up rate increased slightly. The polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, the basis weakened, and the spot processing fee remained low. PX domestic start - up rate declined, some overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics price difference widened. In the future, polyester has no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but the current low processing fee has lasted for a long time. Pay attention to additional maintenance. With limited far - month production capacity expansion, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. Group 2: MEG - The price of MEG domestic market decreased from 4171 on October 13, 2025, to 4115 on October 17, 2025. Shell's 400,000 - ton MEG plant was under maintenance. Near - term, domestic MEG plants had a mix of maintenance restarts, and the load still increased slightly. Overseas maintenance was implemented, arrivals were stable but shipments were weak. Port inventory continued to accumulate slightly at the beginning of next week, the basis was stable, and coal - based MEG profits and price ratios further shrank. In the future, EG's existing start - up rate has returned to a relatively high level, and with the commissioning of new plants, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the weakening of coal - based profits and price ratios, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Also, the coal price has strengthened recently. Pay attention to the selling put options near the coal - based cost [2]. Group 3: Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D cotton - type polyester staple fiber decreased from 6410 on October 13, 2025, to 6370 on October 17, 2025. The spot price was around 6301, and the market basis was around 11 + 40. Near - term, the plant operation was stable, the start - up rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved month - on - month, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn increased slightly, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and the efficiency improved slightly. In the future, the start - up rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn have not increased significantly overall. The export of staple fiber itself has maintained high growth. With acceptable spot efficiency, the high start - up rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee on the futures market is not high. Pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. Group 4: Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - The price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased from 1805 on October 13, 2025, to 1815 on October 17, 2025. The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber remains stable, while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Group 5: Styrene - The price of styrene in the domestic market decreased from 6705 on October 13, 2025, to 6495 on October 17, 2025. The price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained stable at 785 during this period. The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 453 [2][7].