甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251020

Report Overview - The report provides daily updates on the methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, including price data and market outlooks [1][5]. Methanol Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the daily change in动力煤期货 was 0, while江苏现货 decreased by 25, and华南现货 decreased by 22 [1]. Market Outlook - The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The 01 contract's contradictions are difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Recent coal price increases do not affect methanol profits [1]. Polyethylene (PE) Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the华北LL price decreased by 50, and the主力期货 decreased by 55 [5]. Market Outlook - Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract's basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200, with no further increase expected. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are volatile. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New plant pressure is high in 2025 [5]. Polypropylene (PP) Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the华东PP price decreased by 15, and the主力期货 decreased by 67 [5]. Market Outlook - Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import losses are around 700. Exports have been good this year. PDH profits are around -400. Propylene prices are volatile, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH plants undergo more maintenance [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the电石法 - 华东 price increased by 20 [5]. Market Outlook - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivered basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance in Northwest plants has ended, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal prices are strong, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profits are -100. Current inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, real estate sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [5].