Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Advisory Number: Z0010442 [1] - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global oil and fat fundamentals are generally loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Domestic fundamentals are also loose, with stable oil and fat supplies. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8452, with a basis of 196, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, export data is increasing, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9300, with a basis of - 8, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report situation as above, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing palm oil supply [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10146, with a basis of 285, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - 利空: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The analysis centers around the generally loose global oil and fat fundamentals [5] Supply - Related Information - Imported Soybean Inventory: Mentioned but no specific data analysis provided [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: August 22 inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year [2] - Palm Oil Inventory: August 22 port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: August 22 commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [21][22] - Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [23][24] - Oil Mill Soybean Inventory: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [7][8] - Soybean Meal Inventory: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [9][10] - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [11][12] Demand - Related Information - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [13][14] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [15][16]
大越期货油脂早报-20251020
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:31