Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a decline on heavy volume. As the price dropped, long - position entrances were active, while short - position pressure also intensified. In the short term, the market may continue to weaken. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing its support. Short - term indicator KDJ declined and operated in the weak zone; the trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased, the short - position strength increased, and the dominance of short - position strength expanded. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will weaken in a volatile manner [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons. From January to July, global zinc ore production was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis was +110 with the spot price at 21,940, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - On October 17, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons to 38,025 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 149 tons to 67,317 tons compared to the previous day, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions were net short, and the short positions decreased, which is bearish [2]. - LME inventory warrants remained at a low level, while SHFE warrants remained at a high level [2]. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 17 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on October 17 was 193,359 lots, with a total trading value of 2.11968143 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,292 lots, an increase of 9,437 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on October 17 - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 17,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Zinc ingots in a certain area were priced at 21,940 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. Galvanized sheets in a certain area were priced at 3,969 yuan/ton, unchanged. Galvanized pipes in a certain area were priced at 4,373 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. Zinc alloy in Ningbo was priced at 22,400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. Zinc powder in Changsha was priced at 27,170 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Zinc oxide in Taizhou was priced at 20,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. Secondary zinc oxide in a certain area was priced at 7,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/29 - 2025/10/16) - As of October 16, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.556 million tons, an increase of 195,000 tons compared to October 9 and an increase of 21,000 tons compared to October 13 [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on October 17 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on October 17 were 67,317 tons, a decrease of 149 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong were 37,874 tons, in Jiangsu were 447 tons (a decrease of 75 tons), and in Tianjin were 28,996 tons (a decrease of 74 tons) [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 17 - On October 17, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons compared to the previous day [7]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on October 17 - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi all decreased by 60 yuan/ton [9]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on October 17 - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from various smelters such as Hunan Zhizhihai, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan all decreased by 70 yuan/ton [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on October 17 - Zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions ranged from 3,000 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton for 50% grade concentrates, and the import processing fee for 48% grade concentrates was 105 US dollars/kiloton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on October 17 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 130,772 lots, an increase of 11,837 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 77,815 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots, and the total short - position volume was 79,759 lots, an increase of 13,424 lots [17].
沪锌期货早报-20251020
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:31