Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - 焦煤: The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and the overall decline in prices has narrowed after the previous drop. The total sample inventory has decreased compared to last week. Although the terminal demand is average and the raw material demand has slightly decreased, with the second round of price increase in the coke market, the short - term demand for coking coal is still supported, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - 焦炭: The terminal performance is average, and the downstream has inventory accumulation. The daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. However, due to the existing demand from downstream steel mills, high operating loads of steel mills, low inventory of coking enterprises, and strong support from coking coal at the raw material end, the supply - demand gap of coke still exists. The second - round price increase in the spot market has been launched again, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Supply is stable, with no obvious fluctuations in production. Some downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some high - price resources have low acceptance. Some coal mines may continue to adjust prices due to inventory pressure, but the overall decline has narrowed; rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 81, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared to last week; rated as bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; rated as neutral [3]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is long, and the long position increases; rated as bullish [3]. - Expectation: Terminal demand is average. Some steel mills have maintenance due to profit, and pig iron production has slightly decreased. However, with the second - round price increase in the coke market, the short - term demand for coking coal is still supported, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - Factors: Bullish factors include an increase in pig iron production and difficulty in increasing supply; bearish factors include a slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Daily Views - Coke - Fundamentals: The price of some coking coal has rebounded slightly. The profit of coking plants is around the break - even point, with some slightly in the red. The overall operating load has decreased steadily. Coking enterprises have high shipment enthusiasm, and the inventory is mostly at a low level; rated as neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1600, and the basis is - 76, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price; rated as bearish [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared to last week; rated as bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; rated as neutral [7]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position increases; rated as bearish [7]. - Expectation: Terminal performance is average, and the downstream has inventory accumulation. Some steel mills have started maintenance and production reduction, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. However, considering the existing demand from downstream steel mills, high operating loads of steel mills, low inventory of coking enterprises, and strong support from coking coal at the raw material end, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - Factors: Bullish factors include an increase in pig iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - Coking Coal: The document provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on October 17, 2025, including prices at different ports for various types of coking coal [10]. - Coke: The document provides the price index of port metallurgical coke on October 17, 2025, including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke at different ports and different trading methods [11]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28]. Other Indicators - Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].
焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-20）-20251020
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:30