大越期货沪铜周报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. In addition, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025 [11]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific information provided 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in a destocking phase. Bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific information provided 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific information provided 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific information provided