Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, rising cost support, and high inventory levels. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. - The polysilicon market has increasing supply, short - term demand reduction in some sectors but mid - term recovery expected, stable cost support, and the 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons. Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, with high - level polysilicon inventory, low - level organic silicon inventory, and high - level alloy ingot inventory. The demand remained sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - fed silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase. The main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 01 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased and was near the historical average level. The demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned production for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.35GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 173,100 tons, a 3.15% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The planned production for October was 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. The battery cell production and component production also showed certain changes in production and inventory [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 17, the price of N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 12 contract was - 2065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 12 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to recover in the mid - term after a short - term decrease. The overall demand showed continuous recovery, and the cost support remained stable. The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of industrial silicon showed different price changes. The weekly social inventory increased, and the sample enterprise inventory also changed slightly. The production and cost - profit data of different regions and products were also provided [15]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon were presented [19]. - Inventory: The historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses and ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts, were shown [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates in different regions were presented [28]. - Cost: The historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - fed 553 silicon in Xinjiang were shown [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [36][39]. Polysilicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of polysilicon showed different price changes. The production, inventory, and cost - profit data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were also provided [17]. - Disk Price Trends: The historical trends of the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis were presented [23]. - Fundamental Trends: The historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, opening rate, and monthly demand were shown [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was provided, showing supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [63]. - Downstream Trends: The historical trends of price, production, inventory, and export of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented [66][69][72][75]. - Component Cost - Profit: The historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components were shown [78].
工业硅期货早报-20251020
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:37