大越期货菜粕早报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates between 2340 and 2400. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions increase with capital inflow, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of Sino - Canadian tariff reduction, it returns to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, with decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are that domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 9th to 17th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are presented. Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot is relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices rise slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [13][15][16] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content