大越期货沥青期货早报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is below the historical average. The start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with only the waterproofing membrane start - up rate showing a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The decline in asphalt processing losses and the narrowing profit gap between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil, are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of cost support [9]. - The overall view is that the fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 fluctuating in the range of 3114 - 3156 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipments increased, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The start - up rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The processing profit decreased, and the profit gap with delayed coking narrowed. Crude oil is weak, and cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - Prediction: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, the disk is bearish, and the main position is bearish. The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 in the 3114 - 3156 range [8][10][11]. - Leverage and Risks: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logical factors are high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The main risk points are the change in crude oil prices and the profit gap trend between asphalt and coking products [13][14][15] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Market Overview: The report provides detailed data on the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of different asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, and production [18]. - Basis Trend: It presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It depicts the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trend: It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It depicts the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - Start - up Rate: It presents the historical weekly start - up rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: It presents the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment: It shows the historical highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, the new local special bond trend from 2019 to 2025, and the year - on - year change in infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [86][87][88]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly operating hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [90][91][94]. - Asphalt Start - up Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Start - up Rate: It shows the historical start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - Asphalt Start - up Rate by Use: It presents the historical start - up rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - Downstream Start - up Situation: It shows the historical start - up rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].