工业硅期货周报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Supply increased while demand remained sluggish, and costs had some upward support. It is expected that the supply will increase next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and the market is likely to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 12 contract showed an upward trend this week. Supply is expected to increase, and although short - term demand in some sectors may decrease, it is expected to recover in the medium term. The market is expected to have a neutral oscillatory adjustment next week [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 01 contract had an opening price of 8,595 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.91% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 48,285 tons, a 2.93% increase. Different regions had varying changes in production rates, and the expected monthly production rate is 69.23%, a 7.29 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 74,000 tons, a 9.75% decrease from the previous week. Demand in various downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was generally weak [5]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase; and major port inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons [5]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and the market is likely to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 12 contract had an opening price of 48,575 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 52,340 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 7.75% [7]. - Supply: Last week's production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from last month [7]. - Demand: In different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, there were different changes in production, inventory, and profit situations. Some sectors were in a loss state, and some were profitable [7]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 16,650 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to continue to increase next week. Although short - term demand in some sectors may decrease, it is expected to recover in the medium term, and the market is expected to have a neutral oscillatory adjustment [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: Analyzed the trends of the basis and the spread between delivery products of industrial silicon [15]. - Inventory: Presented the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types of warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [19]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: Showed the production, capacity utilization, and production rate trends of industrial silicon in different regions and by different specifications [21]. - Cost: Analyzed the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, including factors such as electricity prices, silica prices, and graphite electrode prices [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Provided weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon and its downstream products such as polysilicon, showing the supply, demand, and balance situations in different periods [30][33][56]. - Downstream Analysis: Analyzed the production, price, inventory, and supply - demand situations of industrial silicon's downstream products, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [35][41][44][52]. 3. Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon (SI): The SI main contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [75][76]. - Polysilicon (PS): The PS main contract showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment next week [77][78].