广发期货《黑色》日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Post - holiday apparent demand for steel has recovered, but there was significant pre - holiday slab inventory accumulation, requiring steel mills to cut production to ease inventory pressure. The price decline has factored in most of the oversupply expectations. The cost of carbon elements on the cost side is supported, while the cost of iron elements may decline due to the expected drop in hot metal. Steel prices have fallen significantly, compressing steel mill profits. Unilateral positions should be on hold. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively and enter a sideways consolidation phase. Consider a long - carbon and short - iron arbitrage, specifically a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil strategy. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to narrow [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures continued to decline in a sideways pattern. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin slightly decreased, hot metal production dropped from its peak, and the steel mill restocking demand weakened. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of tight balance to oversupply, and weak finished product prices are dragging down raw materials. Unilateral positions should be on hold, with a reference range of 730 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended, and consider buying out - of - the - money put options on Iron Ore 2601 at high prices [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, coke futures rose in a sideways pattern. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync, with port trade quotes rebounding, and on the 17th, major coking enterprises proposed a second price increase. The coking industry's price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, leading to losses and a decline in coking plant operations. On the demand side, steel mill hot metal production has dropped from its peak, steel prices are weak, and steel mill profits are shrinking. The overall inventory is slightly lower than the mid - level, and it is a passive destocking by downstream. Speculative investors are advised to go long on Coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [6] - Last week, coking coal futures rose in a sideways pattern. The spot auction prices in Shanxi have recovered, and some coal types have significantly rebounded. The coking coal price shows signs of bottoming out. On the supply side, major coal - producing areas have resumed production after the holiday, but recent mine accidents have led to expectations of supply reduction. On the demand side, hot metal production has slightly declined, and coking plant operations have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. The overall inventory is slightly lower than the mid - level, and downstream has started active restocking. Unilateral positions should be long on Coking Coal 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3200, 3110, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of + 10, - 10, and - 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3270, 3190, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2920 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, while the cost of converter rebar increased by 13 yuan/ton to 3153 yuan/ton. Profits in different regions and for different products showed various changes [1] Production - The daily average hot metal production was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.3%). The production of five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons (- 0.7%). Rebar production was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons (- 1.1%), with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 3.1 tons (13.5%) and converter production decreasing by 5.4 tons (- 3.0%). Hot - rolled coil production was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.4%) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons (- 1.2%). Rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons (- 2.8%), and hot - rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons (1.5%) [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 9.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons (- 6.7%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons (16.5%). The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons (43.5%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons (7.0%) [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes. The basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 0.5 yuan/ton (2.4%), the 9 - 1 spread remaining unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.3%) [4] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons (16.8%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons (- 2.2%). The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons (0.6%) [4] Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) was 315.7 tons, a decrease of 20.7 tons (- 6.1%). The national monthly pig iron production was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons (- 1.4%), and the national monthly crude steel production was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons (- 2.9%) [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (weekly) was 14278.27 tons, an increase of 192.1 tons (1.4%). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8982.7 tons, a decrease of 63.5 tons (- 0.7%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 21 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of different types of coke and coking coal showed various changes. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 1603 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons (- 1.3%). The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with raw coal production increasing by 18.2 tons (2.2%) and clean coal production increasing by 11.8 tons (2.8%) [6] Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The demand for coke and coking coal is affected by steel mill production changes [6] Inventory - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons (- 2.0%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.6 tons (- 10.3%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.4 tons (- 1.7%). For coking coal, the inventory of Fenwei coal mine clean coal decreased by 11.0 tons (- 9.9%), while the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 38.3 tons (4.0%) [6]