大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate between 74,820 - 76,580 [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The September 2025 import volume was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10% increase [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, but is below the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,442 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,159 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,485 yuan/ton, a 2.13% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 7,190 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10] - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak demand from the power battery end [11][12] 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price changes: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,000 yuan/ton to 73,350 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,750 yuan/ton to 71,100 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase. The price of lithium ore and other related products also showed different degrees of increase [16] - Supply - demand data: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, a 3.08 percentage - point increase. The monthly production was 311,670 tons, a 17.74% increase. The monthly demand for phosphoric acid iron - lithium increased by 12.75%, and the monthly demand for ternary materials increased by 25.89%. The monthly net import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,478.01 tons, a 59.34% increase [19] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 829 US dollars/ton to 846 US dollars/ton, a 2.05% increase [16] - Production: The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 55,950 tons, a 4.91% increase. The import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%, while the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83% [19] - Self - sufficiency rate: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production showed different trends in different years [30] - Production: The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, a 57.79% increase. The import volume from Chile was 15,607.56 tons, an 81.83% increase [19] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) showed different trends [39] - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Spodumene and lithium mica: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses. The processing cost composition of spodumene and lithium mica includes energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items [10][44] - Recycling: The cost - profit situation of recycling different types of battery black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium, ternary) for lithium carbonate production showed different trends [46] - Other: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of processing different types of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [46][49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.33%, the downstream inventory decreased by 3.39%, and other inventory increased by 0.87% [10] - Lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of batteries (523 square, power - type square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) showed different trends [55] - Production: The monthly production of battery cells (power - type ternary, power - type phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage) showed different trends [55] - Loading volume: The total monthly loading volume of power batteries was 76,000 GWh, a 21.60% increase. The loading volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries increased by 26.61%, and the loading volume of ternary batteries increased by 20.54% [19] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different years [55] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [61] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary precursors showed different trends [61] - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 88,070 tons, a 20.82% increase for the 622 type [19][61] - Supply - demand balance: The balance in September 2025 was 5,258 tons, showing different supply - demand relationships in different months [64] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary materials showed different trends [67] - Production: The production of ternary materials from different series (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Export: The export volume of ternary materials showed different trends in different years [69] 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - Price: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Production: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [75] - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends in different years [75] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [80] - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [81]