菜粕周报10.13-10.17：菜粕缺乏指引，跟随豆粕震荡-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal market in a volatile pattern. It is currently in a neutral state, with short - term fluctuations influenced by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, changes in China - Canada trade relations, and the shift in the demand season [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to assume a volatile and slightly bullish trend. For the RM2601 contract, it is expected to fluctuate around 2400, and short - term trading or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, leading to a decrease in demand and putting downward pressure on the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of reduced Ukrainian rapeseed production by increased Russian production, and geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills remained low, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downward, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors were exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bearish volatile pattern. The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a low level, and the MACD is declining, but the green energy has not expanded. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the performance of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].